The reason for the weak rise in the price of gold was that after the European debt crisis, there was a shortage of liquidity; in addition, after the failure of Man Financial, a futures company, the margin increased. Everyone sold gold into cash and was willing to hold US dollars instead of gold; The trend of the US dollar index is relatively good. Now the US dolPrecious metals trading companylar index has passed 80, from 73 to more than 80, which will also suppress the price of gold. Another point is that by the end of the year, funds have to cash out and institutions have to redeem, and the pressure will increase. Generally speaking, the previous rise has been high, the huge profits have been huge, there must be an adjustment, and the adjustment process is downward. The fund began to enter when it was $1,000, and it almost doubled to $1,900. The fund must go out, so the overall pressure on gold prices is relatively high. Qin Weihuan, a researcher at the Beijing Gold Economic Development Research Center, said in an interview with a reporter from the Economic Times.
As far as the commodity market is concerned, gold is almost the only species that has rebounded sharply to near record highs since May. Its same door-silver fell 34% from 49 US dollars in the first week of May, but has rebounded only 12% so far, fluctuating within a narrow range of 33 to 38 US dollars within two months. After international crude oil plunged 20% from 115 USD/barrel, it has not returned to more than 100 USD/barrel so far. At the same time, the rebound of metals such as copper and zinc is also very limited, and agricultural products such as cotton, soybeans, and corn have even weakened.
Since the end of June, international gold futures prices have continued to fall, hitting a minimum of $1229.8 per ounce, a new low in the past three years. In their view, the short-term rebound of gold is a high probability event, but the later trend is still not easy to predict. Gold ETFs provide investors with a convenient and low-cost asset allocation tool. The correlation between gold and the A-share market is relatively low. Allocation of a certain proportion of gold assets can optimize investment portfolios and diversify investment risks; in addition, gold ETFs allow investors to realize multiple asset allocations only by relying on securities accounts, enriching gold investment channels.
It is not yet certain whether the European Central Bank's capital contribution can be used as the IMF's confidence deposit for the European debt crisis relief loan. That is, once the IMF purchases a loss in European country bonds, whether the European Central Bank's capital contribution will first bear the investment loss is still unknown. He revealed.
The key to determining the trend of gold prices is still the monetary policy of major central banks in the world, especially the Federal Reserve. Despite the internal noise of the Fed, its quantitative easing policy is unlikely to undergo a major change before at least the end of 2013. The recent gold market has slightly overreacted to the Fed's policy. It is too early to judge the end of the gold bull market. Under the short-term support of the gold price in the area of 1600-1630 US dollars, the market outlook is still likely to rise. The Fed's quantitative easing policy attitude has changed. The minutes of the Fed's policy meeting on December 11-12, 2012 announced that the Fed will continue its bond purchase plan in the next few months to boost US economic growth. However, the minutes of the meeting show that the Fed's internal officials are increasingly cautious about further expanding the Fed's $2.9 trillion balance sheet. Several committee members believed that it might be appropriate to slow down or stop asset purchases well before the end of 2013, because of concerns about financial stability and balance sheet scale. There is no doubt that the important reason why the gold market has performed better than other assets since 2009 is the quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. In particular, the first two rounds of quantitative easing policies stimulated the price of gold more significantly, and the price of gold rose by 21.5% and 25% respectively during this period. Although the marginal effect of three rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy on the gold market is gradually diminishing. But there is no doubt that the loose monetary policies of major economies are the foundation of the gold bull market. Once the Fed's monetary policy changes, it will be difficult for gold to maintain its strength. However, even though some Fed officials have expressed concerns about the quantitative easing policy, the Fed still takes dovish views. And the Fed’s unemployment rate target for QE4 is 6.5%, while the US unemployment rate in December announced this time is 7.8%, which is still far from the target. Therefore, the Fed is unlikely to end its quantitative easing policy in a short time. In addition, in addition to the United States, developed economies such as the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan will also continue to maintain loose monetary policies. Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has repeatedly called on the Bank of Japan to boldly implement monetary easing, saying that Japan’s urgent task is to defeat deflation. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which are in the dilemma of economic recovery, cannot end the loose monetary policy early. The fiscal cliff issue is postponed. Under the compromise of the Republican Party, the two parties in the United States reached an agreement on the fiscal cliff issue, which eased the US financial difficulties. However, the United States faced another fiscal deadlock in February this year because Congress must raise the federal debt ceiling again to maintain the normal operation of the government. The market generally expects that if Democrats disagree with their spending reduction plan, Republicans will also resist raising the federal debt ceiling. In July 2011, the United States also faced the problem of raising the debt ceiling, which directly led to the deprivation of the AAA debt rating of the US government by Standard & Poor's, and also pushed the price of gold to rise sharply in the following three months and set a historical record. Because even if the two parties in the United States can reach an agreement again, rising US debt levels will weaken the attractiveness of the dollar. Funds lighten up positions. From the fund's gold holdings, we can also see the clues of the recent gold price adjustment. According to the gold futures fund positions announced by the CFTC, as of December 31, 2012, the fund's net long position was 148,519 lots, which has fallen to the lowest level since September last year after successive reductions. In terms of gold ETFs representing long-term investment, as of January 4, the world’s largest gold ETF—SPDR had gold holdings of 1,342.09 tons. Although the fund had reduced its holdings by 8.73 tons in the first few trading days of the new year, it was generally In other words, the holding level remains at a high level. Therefore, the recent adjustment of gold is more due to speculative funds being sold, and long-term investor views have not yet been reversed.
Third, we must choose appropriate gold investment channels based on our own risk tolerance and investment capabilities. For most ordinary investors, gold should become a component of asset allocation and shoulPrecious metals trading companyd not rashly participate in risky leveraged transactions. Jiang Shu reminded that most domestic investors are most familiar with stocks, but stocks are low-risk investments without leverage and do not require investment techniques such as subsequent capital management and capital injection. Some inexperienced investors rushed to participate in gold futures and gold deferred products. , Due to poor position control and unreasonable leverage, losses are often unbearable.
2. According to data released by the US Department of Commerce (DoC) on Tuesday, the total number of new housing starts in the United States in October was 894,000, a new high since July 2008, and better than the expectation of 840,000. The annualized monthly rate increase was 3.6%. In September, the total annualized rate was revised from 872,000 to 863,000, and the annualized monthly rate increase was revised from 15.0% to 15.1%.