However, domestic investors can rest assured that compared with these thrilling international margin increases and market take-backs, the domestic futures and spot gold margin increases are only normal measures to deal with external market fluctuations during the holidays. Previously, other commodity futures varieties There are similar margin increases. Moreover, some insiders pointed out that the impact of the increase in foreign gold margin on the market is also relatively short. At the beginning of May and late August of this year, the price of gold has retraced about 7% and 10% due to the increase in margin respectively. Due to macro factors such as debt and US QE3 Precious metals market and coinageexpectations, gold prices quickly returned to the right track.
With the Federal Reserve's statement that it may begin to reduce quantitative easing at the end of this year, international gold prices plummeted yesterday, and the price of gold jewellery in Beijing, which had been calm for more than a month, also fell again. Yesterday morning, major gold stores in Beijing lowered the price of gold jewellery one after another, by 6 yuan per gram. This is the fifth time the price of gold jewellery has been lowered this year.
However, judging from the central bank's subsequent statement, the authorities are more controversial about not raising interest rates for the time being, which may have something to do with the recent market turmoil. The Bank of Korea said on the same day that the interest rate resolution on that day was not unanimously passed, and that not raising interest rates does not mean that inflationary pressures will be reduced. In April, South Korea’s inflation rate reached 4.2%. This year, the country’s inflation has exceeded 4% for four consecutive months.
When QE1 and QE2 were launched, they played a certain role in saving the US economy. But after QE1 lasted for a year and a half, the US economy began to deteriorate, while QE2 lasted for about half a year before the US economic indicators began to decline. Judging from these circumstances, the introduction of QE3 under the current circumstances does not have as good a stimulus effect on US economic entities as QE1 or QE2. Now the US monetary policy will remain loose. As for whether it is called QE3, we can observe whether the Fed meeting on September 20 will appear as QE3. Whether it is called QE3 or not, the policy that tends to be loose should remain unchanged.
But it is undeniable that since the international gold price plunged in April, the price of gold has plummeted to around $1,300 recently. Even the world's largest gold ETFGLD has recently faced the most severe capital outflow since its creation. Except for the week in March, the fund has seen net outflows almost every week this year.
Historically, gold can protect investors from extreme inflation. In years where the inflation rate is higher than 3%, the price of gold rises by an average of 15%. It is also worth noting that the Oxford Institute for Economic Research has shown that gold should perform well in a period of deflation. These periods are characterized by low interest rates and high financial pressures, both of which tend to push Precious metals market and coinageup gold demand.
In addition to large-scale consumers, there are also many people who choose to cash in gold at high prices. On July 2nd, Yang Zhe (pseudonym) brought 3 gold bars to the Sun Gold Store to cash out. The three gold bars were 30 grams, 50 grams and 100 grams, totaling 180 grams. These were bought at different times. The 30g one was bought in September 2012 and the cost was about 340 yuan/g; the 50g one was bought in February 2014 and the cost was about 250 yuan/g; the 100g one was at the beginning of this year It costs about 240 yuan/g to buy it. Calculated the average cost is about 260 yuan / gram.
Silver daily chart: closed with a small yang line, continuing the strong upward trend. In the short-term, we should pay attention to the pressure of 6950 yuan above, and we need to be alert to the fall. At present, the MA5 moving average at 6850 supports the silver price, and the lower moving average forms a golden cross, and the trend turns more. MACD indicator, the multi-party market above the zero axis, the momentum increases, and the two-line zero-crossing axis is strongly bullish. The KDJ indicator overbought zone is trading sideways, and you need to be wary of callbacks; the RSI indicator shows a strong trend. On the whole, today's silver price is expected to further rise to seek a breakthrough, fluctuating range of 6870-7000 yuan, pay attention to the pressure of 6930 yuan and 6980 yuan.
GFMS said the gold market is at a crossroads. On the one hand, once the monetary and fiscal stimulus plans of various governments fail to restore the vitality of the global economy, and deflation concerns rise again, then as investors return to the US Treasury bond market to find safety, the price of gold may fall below US$850 per ounce at the end of the year. . On the other hand, a weaker U.S. dollar and rising inflationary pressures may push up gold prices.
However, the person in charge of asset management of the aforementioned securities firm also mentioned the concern about the redemption efficiency of gold ETFs. Because of the frequent fluctuations in the gold and stock markets recently, we hope that the cash usage efficiency of redeeming gold ETFs in the primary market in the future will be within two working days. , So it is convenient to switch investment between the two markets.